Obamacare has had two strikes against it.   One more and it will be out.  First strike, the almost comic screw up in launching the Federal web site for obtaining health insurance in compliance with the new law’s rules.  Lots of tales about hours of waiting on computers and phones to contact someone only to be told that the system was swamped and to log on or call later.  In contrast there are dozens of private insurance company web sites up and working to provide insurance in compliance with the new rules.  Once again the private sector trumps the government in efficient delivery of a service to the public.

The second strike is almost as funny if it were not so serious.  Millions of people with health insurance have received notices that their plans have been cancelled for not complying with the rules of Obamacare.   These cancellations contradict the president’s reassurances that one could keep his current health care coverage if he wanted to do so after the introduction of Obamacare.  The president has stated that he laments this event and has called for insurance companies to extend present policies for another year while the dust settles.  The insurers have replied that they cannot do this without significant increases in cost to the insured. 

I knew that Obama misspoke when he said one could keep his current plan.  The law itself calls for the elimination of my health plan, which is enjoyed by over 10 million Americans, in short order.  So no one should be surprised when other health plans are struck down by the law. 

The outcry about these two serious errors in introducing Obamacare is intense and the president has taken serious hits in confidence and trust.  One more strike and I believe Obamacare will be put on the shelf for a year which is tantamount to seeing its eventual demise.  My personal opinion is that this will come when the Feds get a handle on how much the new plan is going to cost in new Federal expenses.  This was calculated to be $900 billion over ten years when the bill was first introduced.  That figure rose over the next three years to some $3 trillion or $3000 billion.  And that figure will no doubt be raised when the early applications are analyzed. 

The difficulty in coming up with this figure stems from the way Federal subsidies are to be paid for those receiving “Obamacare.’  The Feds will pay the monthly subsidy up front and then seek to recapture the cost by charging it to your tax refund.  In others words it will be an advance payment of your expected tax refund.  Problem, what happens if you get no refund?  Then the Feds are out the advance payment.  Sort of like an author getting an advance on a book that does not sell.  

I fear this unknown total cost to the Feds of Obamacare will be the third strike.