Debate rages about why companies are not hiring. Many say it is because they are husbanding their funds and bulking up their bottom lines. I say it is because demand is still slack or at least not as robust as we expected in the wake of financial stability and the stimulus plan.
I keep saying that real recovery will not come until we revive the securitized debt market with its huge credit creation effect. Remember, in the run up to the 2008 Recession we were all borrowing heavily against our homes to buy second homes, new cars, vacations, and more. We were using the equity in our homes to live beyond our pay checks.
It is now obvious that the average American is cutting back on purchases and living closer to his current income. Fear of job loss is one reason for this. Another is the shock of seeing home prices plummet, thus rendering those debts against them larger than their values.
The only way out is to revive the securitized debt market and reintroduce the added income stream coming from this credit. Obviusly debt against homes is out. One alternative is to peg the securitized debt more closely to the asset acquired by this source of credit. New car purchases would be a good example.
To me it has become abundently clear, the only way we can get back to the economic heights we enjoyed until 2008 is through returning to the creative credit mechanisms we enjoyed that allowed us to consume beyond our pay check. In this case the average person simply parallels the policy adopted by the Obama administration, i.e. massive deficit spending.
