Meklit is a Yale graduate, lives in San Francisco and has started a substantial buzz in music circles there.

Photographed by محمد حسام الدين

We, or at least I, found this a tiny but welcome corrective to the endless parade on the news of people displaying the worst of human nature everywhere, responding to ugliness with greater ugliness, or simply giving up and throwing themselves on the thin mercy of the world.  I was moved by the spirit of these young Somalis who are creating a path through the ruins of their society, finding within themselves the capacity to nurture a dream instead of passively surrendering to circumstances I can barely imagine, even after seeing this news video from UK’s Channel 4.

Here’s the video:  Training for the Olympics in Somalia

Land scarcity drives a bout of ethnic violence in Kenya, Ethiopia

The Turkana of northwest Kenya and Daasanach of southern Ethiopia have been at odds for years, but food scarcity, drought, and changing lifestyles are exacerbating tensions.

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By Alex Thurston, Guest blogger / May 10, 2011

In passing, I mentioned Ethiopia’s construction of a dam on the Omo River (in fact,  a series of dams), the water source that sustains Lake Turkana, which is mostly in Kenya.  It has been obvious for years that these dams could lead to devastating consequences for both human and animal ecosystems downstream.  Many thousands of  rural Ethiopians and Kenyans would be affected, but the impact in Kenya will almost certainly be much bigger.

Ethiopia claims to have studied the potential impacts but has refused to make the studies public.  This doesn’t pass the smell test, of course. International advocacy groups have taken up the cause, and finally seem to have gotten the attention of the Kenya government.  Ethiopia is still stonewalling.

From a Nairobi paper yesterday:   Kenya wants joint water resource control with Ethiopia

Some background, originally published on February 17, 2011 by the African Press Agency, a good continent-wide news service and kept available by International Rivers, an advocacy group:  Kenyans to protest Chinese involvement in Ethiopia’s Gibe III Dam

Things are also more complicated because now their nomadic paths cross international borders so that traditional clashes create expectations of police responses from distant governments in Addis Ababa and Nairobi.

Worst of all, fighting is now done with AK-47s, not clubs, spears and knives, with an unsurprising rise in bloodshed.

Here’s an interesting overview:  Turkana-Merille fighting

Both of these groups are at the low end of practically any development measure…health services, education, food security.  In years of good rainfall, they may live  lives of  independence and personal freedom that romantics might envy.  But drought years are more common than wet years these days, and the mysterious rules and authority that accompany governments and borders require difficult adjustments that they may not be able to make.  One or both of these ethnic groups may disappear altogether before the end of this century.

When Ethiopia’s next dam on the Omo is finished, river flow may dwindle to such an extent that Lake Turkana itself may shrink or disappear, to say nothing of survival farming along its banks.

Ethiopia did not seriously consider the dire impacts the dam is likely to cause — an accusation it rejects but doesn’t rebut with copies of reports — and also rejects any suggestion that serious adverse impacts are likely.

The red-lettered texts in the photos below say:  Beka  (Enough!) or, where there are two words: Meles Beka (Enough Meles!).  I was told they are the work of “unidentified youth groups.”

This is relevant here because both Ethiopia and Eritrea also have suppressed, unhappy populations.  Are they ripe for uprisings?

Last week Meles detained a few hundred Oromos whom he called Oromo Liberation Front members that were planning to make trouble.  About 120 of them have been formally charged.  In Ethiopia, the ethnic component in political tension is probably the biggest, but economic benefits flow unfairly to favored groups, human rights are severely restricted, the political space is ever smaller, the media more carefully watched, etc.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia’s growing economy helps keep the lid on, for now.  Commodity prices — grain and coffee — are high, which has been a boon to farmers. On the other hand, political trouble these days is more likely to emerge from crowded urban areas, where high food prices are causing pain.  That was the case in Tunisia, the first domino to fall.

Meles already proved that he is willing to shoot protesters, if necessary.  Nearly 200 died when the vote count in 2005 was challenged.  He won 99% of the seats in 2010.   But if growth falters, or the generous flow of foreign aid slows, or, as elsewhere, something unexpected shakes things up, Ethiopia could become another domino.

Meles reads the papers…he can’t be sleeping that well.

In Eritrea, information is so severely controlled that many Eritreans may not know how far political instability has spread, but they can’t be completely in the dark.  Satellite dishes receive Al Jazeera, BBC and many more channels.  Though banned, the politically connected have dishes, and relatives, household servants, visiting friends, etc.  Government officials have drivers, clerks and assorted other contacts.  Without a doubt, something about Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Libya and so on has gotten around.

Eritrean exiles…a growing community…maintain cell phone contact with relatives at home.  They censor themselves heavily during phone calls, but information still gets through in both directions.  What Eritreans here say is that their families know enough about recent events elsewhere to have food for thought, and for talk with intimate family and friends.  They also report that the government reacts so harshly to any signs of political talk, group meetings or the slightest hint of dissent that they are forced to remain politically passive. For now, at least.  Eritrea has no news sources, only government propaganda. As a police state, it’s marginally better than North Korea.

Isiaias’ nightmare is that a coup will come from within the army or one of several security agencies whose main function is to keep an eye on each other.  These groups — at least their officers — are undoubtedly better informed than the average Eritrean. And they have access to arms.  They know that Eritrea has few friends. A few must be unhappy with Eritrea’s degenerate condition and its abysmal international reputation, for which only Isaias can be held responsible.

Isaias can’t be sleeping so well either.

Friday, the Muslim day of prayer, has become the occasion for weekly protest meetings that countries with big Muslim populations can’t ban.  In one after another, violence has broken out on Fridays and followed by violent government responses. Though overall a majority Christian, large areas have Muslim majorities, with rising Muslim-Christian tensions.  There are religious rather than political, but that line could easily be crossed.

Friday it was Burkina Faso’s turn:   Thousands of Burkinabes protest Compaore regime

Meles confidently insists that ‘Arab Spring’ turmoil will not reach Ethiopia.  He keeps the press on a short leash, jails opposition leaders and lets a few of them choose exile.  The economy does seem to be growing, in part fueled by billions of dollars of foreign aid over the past few years.  The brain drain continues; educated Ethiopians don’t find the prospect of living in a censored, heavy-handed, security-obsessed state very attractive.

On the other hand, the growing Ethiopian diaspora, increasingly prosperous and showing a level of entrepreneurial energy and talent that no regime in Ethiopia has ever been liberal enough to tap, is sending growing amounts of money back home, building lavish houses that they rent to NGOs and embassies for extraordinary amounts.  Now a few expats are starting businesses, recognizing that a country of 80 million+ will eventually have a real economy. The government, foreseeing that some of these businesses will be profitable one day, is now fingerprinting — in the US, with our government’s consent — all Ethiopian citizens with residency in the US.  The explicit goal is to make it easier to tax them.

Isaias still maintains Eritrea’s near total isolation.  In a reverse of the ‘roach motel’ model, Eritreans can check out — they flee by the thousands every year — but few can check in. This is why there are so many Eritreans in Libya, who are now unfortunate collateral damage victims.  Libya is on their route to Europe.  Visitors to Eritrea are few and thoroughly screened.  Even journalists are rarely allowed in, and only under strict conditions.

Economically, Eritrea has long been a basket case. Until now.  The government has literally struck gold.  The first of several modern mines — Canadian-owned and operated — went into production in February and has already produced $1 billion worth of gold, at today’s record prices.  Eritrea invested nothing in the venture but is collecting huge royalties that will go directly to Isaias, since “The Government, C’est Moi”. It remains to be seen where the money will go.  The mine has created few jobs for Eritreans.

Maybe we should resurrect an old line and just ‘let Somalia be Somalia’. The bad guys seem to be on a decline at the moment, but that’s because outsiders are doing the ‘government’s’ fighting.  What is laughingly referred to as the Transitional Federal Government is still chasing its tail. There is no there there.

Djibouti, with less than a million people, is having an election this week.  Foreign observers were evicted a few weeks ago.  The strongest opposition candidate decided to stay in London because he expected to be arrested if he went home to campaign.

Oh yeah.  I started to say something about the Ivory Coast.  What I intended was to provide a link to a short, useful background piece on recent history there, taken from the British newspaper, The Guardian.  Gbagbo and Ouattara have been rivals for a long time, it turns out.  So here it is:    Ivory Coast’s turbulent recent history